U.S. Cases of Coronavirus on 16 Jun 2020 Resemble Russian Roulette
Ever had a rude awakening? I did today. The quality website Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center reports on confirmed cases of Covid-19 throughout the world on a daily basis. Today is 16 Jun 2020.
Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center 6-16-2020 U.S.
Total Confirmed Cases to Date 2,114,026
Deaths to Date 116,127
Recoveries thus far 576,334
Do the Math
Total cases that have either died or recovered to date: 116,127 + 576,134 = 692.461
The percentage of these cases that have died is: (116,127 / 692,461) x 100% 16.77%
The fraction 1/6 is equivalent to 16.67%
Consider
So almost exactly, 1 in 6 of confirmed U.S. cases with a definite outcome have died thus far!
Now imagine taking an empty six-shooter and put one bullet in it. Then, as you take the gun and aim it sequentially at 6 people, you pull the trigger each time.
Sound like Russian Roulette?
Image Credit » https://pixabay.com/photos/firearm-revolver-bullet-gun-weapon-409252/
Comments
lookatdesktop wrote on June 16, 2020, 8:57 AM
Exactly! I just shared it to my Facebook Group All About COVID-19 (and how to survive the pandemic) Thanks again, Vincent.
1VinceSummers wrote on June 16, 2020, 12:09 PM
Some have said the percentage of death is much less than what I have portrayed. However, I am comparing apples with apples, not apples with oranges. If one compares the number who have died with all cases, the percentage is more like 6% death. But if one considers only those who have had an outcome, either recovering or dying, the number is as I said, 16.77% dead. To claim the lower number is a bit like lying, wouldn't you say?
MegL wrote on June 16, 2020, 2:08 PM
Confirmed cases can only be measured by those who have been TESTED. In the UK, there have not been enough tests available for those who have symptoms. Younger people may not have many, if any symptoms. The test has a number of false positives and false negatives. Only those who currently HAVE the illness can be tested. If you have had it and recovered, the test will not show that you have had it. There is supposed to be another test to show whether you have had it previously. The figures at the moment show those who died WITH coronavirus not OF coronavirus. If they have comorbidities, they are counted as dying of coronavirus, whether they did or not. No autopsies are being done, so who knows whether it was a stroke, heart attack, burst blood vessel or what?
VinceSummers wrote on June 16, 2020, 2:27 PM
Of course, it is impossible to achieve a 100% accurate interpretation of matters, however I write of the U.S. and I think medical care methodology is a bit different than in the U.K. I feel the 16.77 percent death mark is much closer than the less than 4% model.
melody23 wrote on June 22, 2020, 8:14 AM
The problem is there is no accurate reporting either here in the UK or across the pond in the US, we have all started testing far too late and the criteria for actually being tested were far too strict at first (we also have done nowhere near enough to stop the spread but thats not the point here). There are many, many people having the virus and recovering that we do not know about and in the earlier days (in the UK anyway) deaths where the virus was not a 99% certainty of being cause of death were not recorded as such in the statistics, deaths in settings other than hospitals were also not counted in the early days. Personally I had symptoms of the virus way back in the beginning but was not tested because did not fit the testing criteria at that time (even being a nurse) now I don't think I had it because I wasn't particularly unwell but I could have we don't know and I have recovered from whatever I did have completely (a friend of mine had similar symptoms at the same time and did go on to test positive after developing worsening symptoms). On your side of the pond there are also huge issues around people not being able to afford healthcare, are they being tested? we know from research that Covid-19, a lot like a lot of other illnesses disproportionately affect people with less income and their access to testing and treatment is also lower then to make matters worse, people with lower incomes are likely to live in more crowded areas and less able to take time off work to self isolate.
VinceSummers wrote on June 22, 2020, 2:54 PM
Some aren't being tested because they don't want to be tested. They figure they're young and will get over it. Whereas if they get tested they'll be quarantined. It doesn't matter, I've made my point with the data we do have. To go out and act as if there was no virus would be like playing Russian Roulette. Maybe more foolish.
melody23 wrote on June 27, 2020, 8:17 AM
Absolutely, we are having really nice weather just now (rare in Scotland) and everyone is flocking to beaches and parks so much so that riot police were dispatched to one particular park. People don't care anymore because they have no direct experience with the virus so they think its not as bad as it is being made out to be or they believe that it is all going away now, the reality is that a second wave is coming and those who are gathering in parks and beaches are the cause and will also be the first to be affected by the second wave.